Archive for the 'Finance' Category

 

Economic Times

Nov 18, 2008 in Finance


Things continue to deteriorate. Earlier in the week, Intel reported poor earnings cutting 09 revenue by a billion dollars and Citigroup announcing a 50,000 person layoff on top of the 25,000. Unemployment in the US is expected to hit 8.5% and if an automaker is allowed to fail best estimates are coming in that if could jump by as much as 4%.

 

There is a video being distributed quantifying the losses in allowing the North American manufacturing industry to die. It is very refreshing to see compared to all the media talking about “bailouts”. The media is doing more harm to confuse the general citizen by misusing the term “bailout” instead of explain to people that it is a loan guarantee so that the manufacturers and major employers can fund their businesses.

 

People are out there seem to think that the government is just giving them money. If they do not adequately provide capital to these businesses they will fail and weaken confidence in an already fragile financial system. Causing massive unemployment and further deteriorate consumer confidence. The world will never treat the American financial system the same again.

Domestic Manufacturing and you!

Nov 14, 2008 in Automotive, Finance

Lately I have been really bothered by all the people talking about the financial crisis, credit crisis and all of the current economic concerns… people who really have no idea what they are talking about and are just spreading misinformation. The latest topic of peoples concern is the government plan to help the domestic manufacturing industry. People…They cannot retool 100 car plants… that costs money and it is something that businesses cannot borrow. Another thing is if 2.5 million people end up losing their jobs, it will cost more in a few months of unemployment than it will to help they find financing to continue operating. Not to mention the depression of wages, municipal and state taxes…. and property values.

But the following blurb from Jeff summarizes it well.

“Mr.Cohan’s op-ed article about GM is indicative of the real problem…nobody knows what they are talking about. Please spare with me with all your ruminations about, socialism, the free market, GM’s corporate culture, labor unions, worker productivity, labor costs, currency fluctuation and of course the gran-daddy of them all…American cars are NOT as good as their japanese counterparts. BULL!
Unfortunate for us, our asian counterparts had a business plan which had nothing to do with building a better car. Their cars were inferior for the longest time. If you don’t believe me, tell me how many japanese cars older than 20 years do you see on the roads , the answer is none because they all rusted away because they built them with recycled steel that did not last. Check out Barret Jackson Autions, how many japanese cars are in those auctions; none because the few that survived are undesirable. In the last 20 years, their cars did get better, but not as good as the US press reports about them.
The US never infiltrated the asian market in the same way they have ours. The asian people like US cars, but they are so heavily tarriffed, they are unafordable there. More importantly, Japan’s goverment backs their domestic auto industry to reduce costs so their cars unfairly compete with US autos.
Its all part of their plan to take over the world auto industry (which seems to be happening as I write this email). The secret culture of the japanese companies have used their influence to affect US policy.They hire the same Washington special interest lobbyists that keep assault weapons readily available to hunters and terrorists alike and if you ask me, they should not have access to our legislators.
But wait, their business plan allowed them to not just purchase our media companies, but the souls of the people giving their opinions about their products. This is America and anything and everything is for sale..how much would you like to pay?
When was the last time consumer reports or any other trade magazine ever negatively reviewed a japanese car? Never. Do they report that the single most unreliable V6 engine is built by toyota because it will likely seize due to oil sludge…of course not…they report about the “cheap” interior that GM put in its new corvette selling for $45,000.00 that beats all other cars on the planet selling for well north of $100,00.00. The japanese auto industry controls our media and government policy…so what do you think happens?
30 years ago, we never imagined the US auto industry would be wiped out under such a confluence of negative market forces, but japan and Lee Iacocca did. If you are one of those people who actually believe the US Government should not help then don’t be concerned when 3 million (or more)of your fellow workers are out of a job, the US economic decline dramatically increases, the US loses its ability to manufacture a cars, trucks and military vehicles, and since japan may soon have no competition, toyota can charge you $35,000.00 or whatever it wants for a corolla hatchback.
I can’t wait for the new era of theoretical economic bulls–t that will be used to justify the unintended and devastating consequences to the long term American economy.”

Another well written critique

“YES !!! Mr. Cohan, you are absolutely right !!! Let’s all grab our torches and hoods and hang GM. Better yet why stop there?, let’s get Ford and Chrysler too and completely devastate the heart of the manufacturing industry of USA.

They are not asking for free money as many morons think. What they want is low interest loans to recapitulize and restructure because no one else will lend them money because “doom and gloom” credit analysts and bloggers have driven their stock down so that speculators can short it making it worthless.

For those of you who weren’t around in 1979, Chrysler Corporation was in the edge of bankruptcy (just like now). The board brought on a new CEO from Ford named Lee Iacocca, who by the way, was instrumental in the development and production of the Ford Mustang, one of the best selling cars of all time in America (hard to believe that at one time America bought the cars that were built here) He asked the government for million of dollars in loan guarantees and offered the union workers jobs at a certain rate of pay which they could accept or strike and if they did strike he would just shut the plants and everyboby would go home.

Well guess what!! I was with Dodge at the time and the workers unions agreed and he got the money and everybody went back to work and the people were lining up to buy those K-cars and help an American icon, and all they were getting besides a car was a $200 rebate, where now $2000 rebate is not enough!!!

He paid back the loans (tax payers money) with interest long before they were due. What a happy ending right? I was still with Dodge in 1984 when the new minivans Dodge Caravan and Plymouth Voyage were introduced and we had long lists of people waiting to buy them. All Toyota had was a cheap imitation that would not stand up to one of our products.

I get sick of hearing about the big 3 not building the cars that America wants. Tahoes and Suburbans, SUV’s, and full size trucks were selling well until gas hit $4.00++a gallon.
I don’t see where an American family of 5 with a dog and camping gear could jam up inside a Toyota Corolla, (maybe a family of 5-feet tall Japs could) or tow a boat behind them 35 MPG cars you all brag about. America had a lifestyle very different than our Japanese friends, we want bigger because we desire a better quality of life and comfort that is why we live and work in America and we don’t live with three other families in a one-room hole in Tokio and eat rice and fishheads for dinner.

I don’t know what years you are refering to Mr. Cohan but your star company Toyota’s stock was trading for around $117 on October of last year and even as early as the beginning of 2008. Today it is trading for around $67. Almost 50% off.

The truth is they gained their market share in the 80’s not by making a better product but by “dumping” their product in our market. For those of you who don’t know what dumping means, it means selling for less than it costs to build, selling under cost to gain market share and then raise the price to the consumer.

It shows you their sales are down too and so is Honda, Nissan, Mazda, BMW, Lexus and so on. You want know why? Because people are losing their homes, their 401K’s and IRA’s are worth half of what they were a year ago and the country is at the edge of a depression. And your answer is not to invest in an American company and put more people out of work.

The bright side of this is when these foreign investors come to take over these factories and failed businesses it will tickle down eventually to everybody and all the morons who yelled “HANG ‘EM” will be in the same soup line as me, only thing is I will have a better place in line because my industry will fail first. What business will you consult when there are no businesses, in what college will you teach when no one has money for college?

I hope for all of our sakes that doesn’t happen.

Where is Lee Iacocca now that we need him?

God Bless The United States of America.”

Slightly less tact

“Mr. Cohan, you are obviously clueless and have no business blogging on a topic that you know nothing about. GM is consistently at the top in all categories when it comes to quality and safety, and routinely ranks higher than it’s foreign competitors. For you to say they can’t complete globally is absurd. GMs largest growth of late has been in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, China and Russia. Is that not the sign of a global company? It is dumb @$$ people like you, that have no clue what they are writing about, and continue to bash the US auto industry and it’s employees. Your opinions are helping to create this mess by influencing John Q Public with your false information and is a major reason the economy is in ruins. By the way genius, the 25 billion they are asking for is a loan, not a gift like was given to the financial industry. I guarantee you won’t see the execs at GM throwing a 400K bash to celebrate. Why don’t you write about the insurance cos. that are using their bailout money to party”

Current State of Affairs in laymens terms

Nov 02, 2008 in Employment, Finance

Here is a great find.

On a Saturday, a Wall Street manipulator/man took a beautiful young
woman to an very expensive store in downtown NY. In the store, the man
decided to buy a $60000 LV handbag for the young woman. During the
check out, the man wanted to use a personal check to pay for the
handbag. The following was the conversation between the man and the
cashier:
Cashier: I am sorry, sir, we do not take personal check.
Man: No problem. Today is Saturday, and all the banks are closed. How
about you keep both the check and handbag for right now. When the bank
open on Monday, you can cash the check. Then, I want you to deliver
this handbag to this lady.
Cashier: (big smile) sure, once the check is cashed on Monday, I will
deliver this handbag to the lady without any shipping cost.
On Monday, the bank rejected the check, because there is no money in
the account. The cashier called the man. The following was their
conversation:
Cashier: Good morning, sir, your check is rejected by the bank, and we
are sorry that we can not deliver your purchase.
Man: That is OK! I do not need the handbag anymore, because I have
already had sex with that young woman yesterday. Thanks for your
help!!!!
(In this story, the cashier is analogous to those rating agents,
analysts and media. The young woman is analogous to you and other
small short-term investors/tax-payer/speculators who are hardworking
but poorly educated, who do not have own mind, who buys stocks on good
news today and sell on bad news tomorrow)
The key message of this story:
If those small investors/speculators/tax-payers do not deserve to be
fucked up, who else does ??!!!  I know so many people who buy stupid financial products at ridiculous rates form Investors Group, Sunlife Financial…XYZ company, because the 6-month company trained guy who makes a shit-load of commission selling it to them tells them its hot. They get them to buy into emerging markets, commodities when things are smoking… but when things turn around they are not there to tell them “Hey wait… this was a good idea six months ago but X,Y and Z just happened and this is a suckers bet now”…. nope that would just be too much to ask for someone who already got paid and the unknowing person gets stuck holding the bag all the way down.

False Bottom!

Oct 03, 2008 in Finance

Well… I am back from my personal hiatus.

Topic of the day is GDP, and what has changed. The last consumer led recession in the US occurred in 1978. A consumer led depression occurs when the consumer no longer has cash to spend and the economy seizes. This is different from a producer led recession where they cannot sell their product (normally overseas) and are forced to cut work at home.

Now the US on a Federal mandate, has transformed from the producer of all high-level high margin items, to the producer of virtual wealth. Instead of making cars, TVs, appliances, ships and steel… they make websites, retail everything, and “value added financial products” that are hard to value but get AAA-rated anyways.

So people used to make high margin items and now are in the service industry…who cares. Despite having a lower standard a living, and a less skilled labor force it’s not that big of a deal right? Well… 70% of the US GDP is now consumer based. A large portion of that was fueled by Home equity loans. The savings rate was negative for the last few years. People largely have negative net worth and 3.5 adjustable rate loans are going to reset this year.

Ok, so now there are more people who live paycheck to paycheck, no longer have access to credit and the economy is based on consumer spending…. does anyone else not see a problem with that? Bankruptcies are going to get worse… much worse.

Let’s just make up a simple example where you employer experiences a revenue downfall of 10%. In scenario A) you work at a factory that makes widgets and has a gross margin of 50% in B) you work for a retail store (Walmart) that makes 20% if they are lucky and they are the best. As side from the fact that you would make half or less working for Walmart, the impact to their business will be much larger, fixed costs are much higher in retail/service than they are in manufacturing.

So people lose their jobs quicker, businesses can’t get loans to help people finance things (which I think at this point is good, but not for the economy)…the economy will shrink.

This last week the media has been misreporting the Warren Buffet investment. He is not bottom feeding he is leveraging his money to make massive guaranteed gains that most people cannot do. HE IS NOT BUYING COMMON STOCK. He is also not getting normal preferred stock. If you buy into GE just because buffet did you deserve what is coming to you. The fact that GE and Goldman Sachs needed to sell to buffet at such undesirable terms speaks volumes. AIG has almost maxed their credit lines, and with Congress fumbling what used to be a $700B but is now a $1T buy-in… I don’t believe anymore in the US gov’t than I did last year.

Buffet got preffered stock which is stock that pays a dividend that is agreed upon by the issuer and the buyer. It does not appreciate like common does. It is basically a bond, with preferential tax treatment (bond income is taxed at normal income rates, dividend is capital gains). It is a perpetuity, the dividend does and can increase, and if Goldman or GE wants it back they need to pay all of his original capital plus 10% premium and Buffet keeps the dividends… which are twice what normal investors would get for preffered capital.  And for his good deed of providing capital, he gets the option (warrants) to buy common stock for below market price and at no risk to ANY of his original capital.

These companies were desperate to shore up their balance sheets, and Buffet was not willing to take a risk.  He basically has protected capital, guaranteed at 10% dividend and also has the chance to enjoy upside on the common stock through the warrants he received, which are already in the money…. and if you subtract their current value from his capital contribution reduce it dramatically.

Which is why they markets didn’t see it as a sign of confidence… Buyer beware. I almost bought in as the bottom yesterday. Glad I didn’t. AA, AAPL, SVC, MRVL, BRCM and RIO looking real good though…